SPECIAL
REPORT
Rocky road ahead for Democratic Republic of
Congo
peace process
Lusaka - "The secretary-general has said the process will
be tough, long and costly, but that whatever it takes, he
would like to assist," according to the UN special
representative. Speaking in the Zambian capital of Lusaka,
Dinka pointed out, however, that any decision to commit UN
peacekeepers to the volatile, mineral-rich, country would be
up to the Security Council. He dashed any hopes among African leaders that the United
Nations would launch a "Chapter Seven" operation, which
allows for peace "enforcement" but sends a collective
shudder down the UN spine because of the Somalia debacle in
1993. "We have been quietly informing heads of state that
Chapter Seven is a very difficult mandate and the least
likely to be accepted," Dinka said. UN diplomats have said a peacekeeping force of between 15
000 and 20 000 troops will be considered. Dinka confirmed
that UN involvement will begin as of this week, with the
despatch of the first of 90 military liaison officers to
prepare the ground for a larger observer group. The officers will be stationed in the DRC and in the
capitals of other belligerent states. Uganda and Rwanda, to the east of the former Zaire,
backed the rebels in the year-long war, while DRC President
Laurent Kabila was supported by troops from Zimbabwe, Angola
and Namibia. They all signed the ceasefire agreement on July 10. The
UN's military liason officers will be followed "within the
next few days by a technical survey team which will study
what is needed and report back to the secretary-general",
Dinka said. "I expect many snags ahead. We are going from
the shooting stage to the political stage, and everybody has
their own political interests," he said. His concerns were echoed by an analyst with South
Africa's Institute for Security Studies, Hannelie de Beer.
"This is the most dangerous period, before there are peace
monitors on the ground. I've got my doubts about whether the
ceasefire will hold. There are many armed groups and it is
easy for them to do what they like at the moment." She predicted that the situation would remain unstable at
least until the political dialogue called for in the
ceasefire agreement is completed. This requires Kabila to negotiate the DRC's future
political direction with both armed and unarmed opposition
groups. "It is due to begin within 45 days and be completed
within another 45 days - and I don't think that is long
enough," De Beer said. Apart from political problems in a country with no
tradition of democracy, one of the major hurdles is a demand
in the ceasefire agreement that the Interahamwe Hutu militia
responsible for the 1994 Rwandan genocide be hunted down and
disarmed. "It is simply not going to be possible," said De Beer.
"Who is going to do it?" Thousands of Interahamwe
militiamen, with the blood of hundreds of thousands of
Rwandan Tutsis on their hands, are at large in the DRC. Their presence and the need for border security is the
main reason cited by Rwanda for its intervention in the DRC
conflict. "If the Interahamwe is not dealt with, it will
give Rwanda reason to stay in the DRC," said De Beer. And if
that happens, the whole process could begin to unravel.
The
final signing of a ceasefire by a splintered rebel movement,
which was the last warring party in the Democratic Republic
of Congo (DRC) to do so, is just the start of a long, rocky
road to peace. "We are beginning the most difficult phase,"
the UN special envoy to the Congolese Rally for Democracy
(RCD) finally signed the ceasefire text. Leaders of rival
RCD factions thus joined six belligerent nations and another
rebel force in the bid to bring peace to a derelict country
two-thirds the size of the European Union, riddled with
armed groups and haunted by genocidal killers. In
this picture by AP's Themba Hadebe Congolese rebel leader
Ernest Wamba dia Wamba signs the ceasefire agreement in
Lusaka, Zambia
- Sapa-AFP