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INSIDE AFRICA
Implications of Abacha's scrapping of August 1 elections by Chido Nwangwu The unfolding power-play in Nigeria took a new, more fundamental turn with the unexpected announcement on Monday April 20, by Kalifa Hassan Yusuf, the deputy head of the political transition implementation committee. According to Yusuf, the scheduled August 1, 1998 presidential elections will be set aside and be replaced by a referendum on August 1, in which Nigerians will have to vote either for, or against the Gen. Sani Abacha. Nigeria's political opposition coalition and civil rights groups have already called for a boycott and de-legitimation of the national assembly emerging from Saturday, April 25 elections and athe planned referendum by the military regime. The prelude to the latest development featured the five political parties authorized and established by the military government handing their presidential baton to Gen. Abacha. The cascading events hold a ring of irony to it, in the sense that Abacha who took over power in November 1993 did not openly seek or publicly indicate request the ticket from the parties his government set up as part of his transition program. The core meaning of the awarding of the presidential ticket to Abacha prior to these latest turn of events is that, if he chose to run, he would have stood unopposed. Nigeria has never had any unopposed presidential candidate in its 38-year history. Again, Nigeria seem set on a complicating march into its future. Meanwhile one of those elbowed aside by the Abacha train is a lawyer and former 1980s Nigeria Advance Party Presidential candidate Tunji Braithwaite. He does not seem willing to swallow the latest turn of events, quitely and withour raising strong objections; largely legalistic. He insists "I have strong evidence of constitutional illegalities that show that (Abacha) was not legally nominated.'' The GDM's decision to hand Gen. Abacha its ticket occurred early Monday April 20 in the far north eastern city of Maiduguri. A few days before the GDM, the largest and most influential party in Nigeria, United Nigeria Congress Party nominated Abacha as its flag-bearer. Now, the world awaits what Abacha will do with the flirtations of the parties. Braithwaite former member of the Grassroots Democratic Movement withdrew as a presidential early Monday when he argued the nomination process was rigged in Abacha's favor. He said he was offended after the GDM amended its constitution to accommodate Abacha, a non-party member to get the presidential ticket. The party previously had said its candidates must come from party ranks. Also, civil rights lawyer and arch-critic of military regimes in Nigeria, attorney Gani Fawehinmi issued a cautionary note that the nominations be given to Abacha by all the five government registered parties will lead to "chaos and instability." It is important to get the background prior to the nominations and determination of the Abacha team to see the General, possibly, become Nigeria's first soldier turned milito-civilian president. The question which needs to be asked is whether the comments by U.S president Bill Clinton during his joint presidential press conference (with Africa's eleder statesman and South Africa's presdent Nelson Mandela) in Capetown attended by this reporter, demolished the last international hurdle for Gen. Abacha's long-anticipated candidacy. Clinton said: "If he (Gen. Abacha) stands for election, we hope he will stand as a civilian....". A few days after Clinton's comment. Lately, realising the impact and consequence of the decision of bthe president within the context of the decision of Gen. Abacha to hold a referendum, State Department spokesman James Rubin has issued a statement warning about U.S concerns regarding the transition program and its methods. To put it mildly, the flock of sheep has left the barn and are running in many directions that the White House will need more than a suden awakeing to begin to understand and comtemplate the latest development. But Clinton's personal envoy to Africa for the promotion of democracy told me during an exclusive interview in Johannesburg South Africa during Clinton's visit that "it is not the policy of the United States to determine who runs for elections in countries in Africa or elewhere." Translation: The U.S is not really interested in "interefering" in the internal democratic struggles inside Nigeria . This fact is lost largely on the idealis of millions of Nigerians who still believe the U.S will shepherd and propel the culmination of the democratic yearnings of that country of over 110 million. If history is a guide, beyond sentimental preenings of those who still wish things werer different in Nigeria) Abacha has had his way on any number of issues; from Saro-Wiwa's hanging to calling the bluff of the Commonwealth, from jailing the so-called 'sacred cows' in Nigeria to detaining those who corrutply destroyed banks and sabotage Nigeria's economic progress. He seized power in a bloodless coup in November, 1993. That year, he inherited the fruits of June 12, 1993 presidential elections annulled by his friend retired Gen. Ibrahim Babangida. Currently jailed Moshood Abiola, the apparent winner of the elections, has been a distant thought in the minds of his supporters who seem concerned with keeping up with the more recent actions of Abacha than his ancient strokes. Prof. Wole Soyinka, Nobel laureate and critic of the regime told me in an interview "the regime is determined to destroy all political institutions in order to perpetuate itself in power." For Soyinka's followers this latest action by Abacha lend credence to theri fears; to Abacha's supporters, the man they believe have continued to show "decisive action" is the best man to move "Nigeria forward." A pall of concern for the future of Nigeria and its tortous quest to the kingdom of democracy hangs in the air like the dusty harmattan haze in the far-northern Nigeria city of Jalingo. Again, Abacha's decision to hold a referendum (with no alternative to his candidacy) is not only audacious but reflective of his other bold, if unpopular moves. Will Nigerians dance on the streets to welcome Presdient -elect Sani Abcha on August 1, or will they halt the march to Abacha's unprecedented power-play? Will Clinton recant his words or will he fall in line and congratulate Gen. Abacha? Will Abacha heed the warning: "these developments portend the danger of the imminent collapse and disintegration of Nigeria as a nation... This injustice will surely breed violence and the consequences are better left imagined,'' as stated by the Rev. George Ehusani, assistant secretary of the Nigerian Catholic Church? Before those oppositional pulls of logic and contrasting images bring forth certainties, may I realistically note that amidst the whole hullabalo and huffing and puffing, the faint of heart usually gets smothered by the powerful behemoth, really leviathan which dominates the geoplitical and raw power networks of Nigeria. The fact is that members of the opposition are doing all the talking and largely reacting to Gen. Abacha's agenda and decisive moves, some popular with the masses, others very frustrating. Second, and vital, should the General win any election or referendum this August, it will set aside the understanding by Nigeria's political elite that a Nigerian from the Southern region should produce the next president (since the Northern region has produce an overwhelming majority of soldier-presidents and other heads of state). Will more politicians oppose or line up behind the nearly 55-year old soldier? Will Abacha pull the whole opertaion through? Or.... How all these play out will be revealed, soon, on the canvass of time.
*Chido Nwangwu, Founder & Publisher of USAfrica The Newspaper and
usafricaonline.com, Houston-based public policy and business, returned
recently from travelling as the African-American newspaper publisher
with U.S president Bill Clinton on his 12-day, 6-nation tour of the African
continent. Also, he is winner of The HABJ 1997
Journalism Excellence Award.
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