
African Union's failure to end impasse puts Kenya in worse spot
By Mwaura Kimani in Nairobi
Nairobi , January 13, 2008: When Africa Union boss John Kufuor jetted into the country last week, there were high hopes that a solution was finally in the offing to stop the current crisis that has left 500 people dead and encourage political reconciliation.
In the same week, South African Nobel peace laureate Desmond Tutu, US Assistant Secretary Jendayi Frazer, a host of foreign envoys and four former African President were in the country armed with a diplomatic push.
Kenya's rising profile in the international community has seen international bodies and countries scampering with all manner of diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis. But mediation talks seem to have faltered raising doubts of bringing together the warring President Kibaki and Raila Odinga sides with Thursday's departure of President Kufuor.
Controversy over President Mwai Kibaki's re-election in a December 27 vote triggered bloodletting that displaced over 350,000 people, dented the stable reputation of East Africa's biggest economy and disrupted essential supplies to nearby countries. For a country which is increasingly becoming host to foreign business and political interests, the intervention of international missions is seen as the only key that might unlock what has been a stalled process.
Since independence in 1963, Kenya has never received the kind of diplomatic interventions as it has following the completion of the disputed polls. But diplomacy experts and political analysts are now warning that failure by politicians to resolve the crisis amid the diplomatic efforts might hurt Kenya's image in the international radar, which is already threatened by the political violence that has rocked the country.
Kenya is not just another African country.
Suffering only one - failed - coup attempt in 45 years of independence, its stability makes Nairobi, the capital, the base for trans-national corporations, the United Nations and scores of NGOs for East and Central Africa. Unlike many African countries, Kenya's strong professional class has never fled and have driven economic growth at about 6 per cent in the past four years. The crisis hurt key economic sectors like tourism and agriculture, and tainted Mr Kibaki's previous reputation as a gentlemanly leader.
Finance minister Amos Kimunya put the loss at Sh60 billion. Analysts warn foreign investors might not be so patient to wait for the crisis to cool-off. Long used to receiving refugees from neighbouring hot-spots like Sudan and Somalia, Kenya now has more than a quarter of a million of its own internally displaced people, many the victims of fighting between different ethnic groups.
Karuti Kanyinga, a political scientist at the Institute of Development Studies, University of Nairobi says delay in resolving the current stalemate, despite the diplomatic interventions is sending bad signals to the international community likely to trigger power shifts among the donors.
"This is a big crisis causing ripples among Kenyan partners who had hoped for better times given the strong economic growth over the last four years, " Dr Kanyinga told the Business Daily.
But shunning international pressure, Mr Kibaki and Odinga who claims he was robbed of victory have still not met since violence erupted after Kibaki's disputed elections last month. Last Monday, Britain's Foreign Secretary David Miliband, said Kenyan leaders risked losing the confidence of the international community if they failed to reach a comprise over the election fiasco.
"Kenya's leaders must not forfeit the confidence, goodwill and support of their own people and the international community. The stakes are high for the Kenyan people, and we (Britain) will remain fully engaged," said Mr Miliband.
Mr Kibaki, who sees the crisis as a domestic issue, has been reluctant to accept international mediation despite the constant prodding of the United States and others. Many governments, including the British, have promoted this mission as the best hope for progress.
America has accepted the result, but Dr Frazer, an influential figure in Africa, says Kenyans were cheated. European election observers also said the process was not convincing. "The US confidence in Kenya as a regional strategic partner has not been threatened by the crisis and will not be, " Dr Frazer told reporters during a press briefing last week.
Retired Archibishop Tutu, Dr Frazer and President Kufuor held talks with President Kibaki and Mr Odinga and said both "indicated they are open to the possibilities of negotiations." The African Union mission led by Kufuor ended in failure on Thursday as the president and opposition leader accused each other of wrecking talks.
AU, however, said both sides had agreed to work with an African panel headed by former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan. But Mr Kibaki and Mr Odinga neither met nor agreed how to end the crisis.
Pope Benedict XVI called for an end to the violence and a peaceful resolution to the political crisis resulting from a disputed election. The diplomatic push was expected to unlock what has been a stalled process, which analysts say was deepened by President Kibaki's naming of part of his Cabinet last week.
But Kibaki's justified his action for announcing a partial Cabinet saying it was meant to enable the country to "function". He said he remained open to a "broad-based government" that would "represent the will of the people".
In contrast, Mr Odinga's team are viewing the Cabinet appointments as a "slap in the face" for the talks. The appointment of ODM-Kenya candidate Kalonzo Musyoka to the post of vice-president, though predictable, has been no less galling. Diplomats said that the President Kibaki has been "playing hard to get".
Among the options being considered in the talks included a change in the constitution to enable the creation of a strong prime ministerial post. That seems an unrealistic possibility since changing the constitution would take time.
Also, Mr Odinga was promised the prime ministerial role in the last government and when President Kibaki reneged on the deal he split from the party and set up ODM.
Kenya has joined the ranks of other African countries in crisis: Sudan, Somali, Chad, Ivory Coast, Chad and the Democratic Republic of Congo who have been under sharp diplomatic focus. With a dozen high-powered envoys involved so far, the diplomatic policy now is that political dialogue is the way forward. How far the US, UK, AU and the EU will press for political dialogue remains unclear.
With South Africa's leadership in turmoil and Nigeria also suffering from a failed election earlier this year, it is hard to see who in Africa could bring both sides together.
Populist former Deputy President Jacob Zuma beat President Thabo Mbeki to take the leadership of the ruling African National Congress in December, but must face renewed corruption charges in court before he can take over from Mbeki in 2009.
Without concerted international diplomatic intervention, Kenyans may be left to fight it out. "They are furious seeing their interests in the country being hurt. If the situation continues, we could see movements by key multi-national bodies", Dr Kanyinga says.
The high number of international observers during the controversial December 27 polls could also attest to this. The problem is that Mr Kibaki does not see why he should make major concessions as he was declared the winner. He insists he will talk but only when things calm down.
For his part, Mr Odinga has been unwilling to give up his major weapon, street protests, and wants Mr Kibaki to acknowledge that the election result was false. On the other hand, diplomats also think that the street protests are not going to deliver the result that Mr Odinga wants.
Peace is returning to Ivory Coast following massive diplomatic interventions after a civil war wrecked its stable reputation, but potentially divisive elections loom. Joachim Chissano, the former president of Mozambique - one of four former African leaders who have flown to Kenya to call for peace - said that, like Mozambique, Kenya was a "model democracy". This report first appeared in Business Daily (Nairobi).
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